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This report covers Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax County and the towns within.

A total of 1,957 homes sold in May 2010, an increase of almost 9% from May 2009 home sales of 1,803.

Active listings decreased by about 4% from last year, with 7,710 active listings in May, compared with 8,050 homes available in May 2009. The average days on market (DOM) (for sold homes) decreased by 47% to 40 days, compared with 76 days in May 2009.

Sales prices rose by about 6% compared with last year. The average sales price this May was $460,828, compared with last May’s average of $433,257.? ?The median sales price – usually a more accurate indicator – was $404,000, which is an increase of almost 8% compared with May 2009’s median price of $375,000.

The number of pending home sales decreased by 28% with 1,901 sales pending compared to 2,637 in May 2009. This was an expected result of contract signings pulled into April by the tax credits, which expired April 30.

My take on the market in the area is that it’s still strong, driven by the ridiculously low interest rates (under 5% fixed, and 3.5% for 5/1 ARMs) which look to be with us for at least the next couple of months as signs of inflation remain low. If you’re on the fence about buying, I’d say it’s time to jump.

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Here are the April 2010 home sales activity for Northern Virginia – including Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton:

A total of 1,793 homes sold, 16% more than April 2009 home sales of 1,544 and the 21stth consecutive month of higher year-over-year sales. And for the 25th straight month, the number of pending home sales increased over the same period as the year before – 12% this month.

Active listings increased only sightly from last year, with 8,327 active listings in April, compared with 8,234 homes available in April 2009. The  “inventory,” as we real estate people refer to homes available for sale, is less than five months’ worth of homes. The industry generally considers anything under six months’ inventory to represent a “sellers’ market,” although I think it’s more balanced.

The average days on market (DOM) for homes in decreased to 45 days, compared with 85 days a year ago. More importantly for most sellers, more than 70% of homes sold went under contract in less than 30 days.

The average sales price in April rose by 12% from last year, to $455,686, while the median price rose 9% to $390,000. The year-to-date increase in average prices is on the order of 12%.

Now that the federal tax rebate programs have ended, let’s see where the market goes in May and June, usually the prime time for home sales. I would expect actual sales (closings) to go up, but I have no idea what will happen with pending sales. Will buyers keep on coming?

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1,349 homes sold in December 2009, an 11% decrease from December 2008 home sales of 1,510. I believe this was the result of two specific circumstances: (1) there was a huge push for buyers to complete their purchases by November 30 under the $8,000 tax credit act (which was extended at a very late date to the end of April 2010) and (2) the available homes for sale (“inventory”) is astonishingly low.

Active listings decreased by over 29% from last year, with 5,421 active listings as of December 31, compared with 7,688 homes available in December 2008. In fact, it’s the lowest end-December inventory we’ve seen since December 2004′s ridiculous 1,645. And I suspect, with the tax credit extended (and a new credit available for move-up buyers), we are going to see hot sales and low inventory numbers for the next 4 months at least. If interest rates (see historical chart) stay under 6%, buyers are going to be facing even more multiple-offer situations than we have now, which would be saying something.

The average days on market for homes in December 2009 decreased by 38% to 57 days, compared with 92 days a year ago. No surprise there. And 58% of homes sold in under 30 days.

Sales prices rose compared with last year. The average sales price in December increased by about 12% to $474,104, and the median price also rose in December to $385,000, an increase of 13% from last December’s $340,000.

I cannot emphasize this strongly enough – those who need or want to sell must get their homes ready and on the market no later than March.

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Sales continued to be brisk in the Northern Virginia housing market in November. The problem is that inventory – the number of homes available to sell – continues to decline as sellers aren’t getting the word that it’s time. Inventory is down to less than 4 months’ worth of sales. I only can see it getting even shorter as we hit the holidays and cold months (brrrr!) – but will there be an explosion in March/April as the tax credits reach their inevitable end?

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June 2009 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton:

A total of 2,169 homes sold, 14.2% more than  June 2008 home sales of 1,900 and the 11th consecutive month of higher year-over-year sales.

Active listings decreased by 27 % from last year, with 7,617 active listings in June, compared with 10,440 homes available in June 2008.  The decrease in “inventory,” as we real estate people refer to homes for sale, is becoming somewhat alarming – that’s only 3 1/2 months of inventory.

The average days on market (DOM) for homes in decreased to 71 days, compared with 83 days in June 2008. However, more than half the homes sold in under 30 days.

The average sales price in June fell by 7% from June 2008, to $451,354, while the median price fell 6% to $392,367. These prices are, however, again higher than the preceding month.

And for the 15th straight month, the number of pending home sales increased 17% over the same period last year.

Kim Hannemann, Real Estate Consultant/Realtor®, Samson Properties

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If you would like to discuss real estate questions, sell or buy a home in Northern Virginia – including Alexandria, Annandale, Arlington, Burke, Centreville, Chantilly, Clifton, Fairfax, Fairfax Station, Falls Church, Kingstowne, Lorton, McLean, Reston, Springfield, or Vienna – contact Kim today.

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April 2009 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Clifton, Herndon and Vienna:

• A total of 1,544 homes sold in April 2009, an increase of 6% over April 2008, and the ninth consecutive month of higher year-over-year sales. Terrific, but look at this – pending home sales, based on signed contracts, are 2,692, up 25% from last year! Pending sales have been up double-digits year-over-year for 13 consecutive months.
  
• Active listings – homes on the market – decreased by 23% from last year, with 8,234 active listings at end-April. Fewer homes on the market usually means prices are poised to start rising. The supply of homes remains in the less-than-six-months “seller’s market” range.
• Another sign of strong activity – the average days on market (DOM) for homes in April 2009 decreased by 15% to 85 days, compared with 100 days in April 2008.
• Sales prices continue to remain lower than those realized last year. The average sales price in April fell 16% percent from April 2008 to $405,514, while the median price was $356,750, a decline of 14%. The average and median sale prices are again both higher than last month, however.
• Agents continue to see a lot of multiple-offer situations on attractive well-priced homes in good condition, particularly in price ranges under $475,000. If you are looking for such a home, be prepared to act decisively.

It’s Good To Have A Friend In The Business®

If you would like to discuss real estate questions, sell or buy a home in Northern Virginia – including Alexandria, Annandale, Arlington, Burke, Centreville, Chantilly, Clifton, Fairfax, Fairfax Station, Falls Church, Kingstowne, Lorton, McLean, Reston, Springfield, or Vienna – contact Kim today.

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Just in time for the annual Spring Home Buying Season, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to begin filling the store shelves with a brand-new stock of foreclosed homes. Without fanfare, on March 31 they both ended the four-month moratorium on foreclosure sales and evictions they had imposed on servicers of the mortgages they own.

Fannie Mae said in a brief statement from spokesman Brian Faith that “Fannie Mae’s suspension of foreclosure-related evictions concludes as of March 31, 2009. The company has in place special foreclosure sale requirements that take into account the Making Home Affordable program. A foreclosure sale may not occur on any Fannie Mae loan until the loan servicer verifies that the borrower is ineligible for a Home Affordable Modification and all other foreclosure prevention alternatives have been exhausted.”

Brad German, a spokesman for Freddie Mac, said he was “mystified” as to how anyone could be surprised by the ban’s expiration. The idea behind it was to give the government time to create homeowner rescue plans, and that’s been done, he said. Neither agency also expects a flood of homeowners out on the street because the ban is being lifted, he added. “For all practical purposes, people will be in their homes for a while,” despite the ban’s expiration, German said. Fannie and Freddie will need time to approach tenants and homeowners and figure out whether they are qualified for help, he said.

Still, this raises the possibility of a sizable influx of such homes coming to the market beginning as early as the end of this month. I’ve been noting in my recent posts (here and here) that the local inventory is shrinking when one normally expect it to be rising – perhaps this is one reason why, and we may see increases in inventory soon.

Here are some other comments about the situation:

From a post by Ben Martin today on VARBuzz.com (Virginia Association of Realtors):

Anecdotally, we’re hearing that because of the dearth of foreclosure activity, there’s actually very little inventory in the DC metro area. We hear there are buyers galore, many of them incentivized by the dramatic reduction in prices, low interest rates, and the first time homebuyer stimulus package. But the foreclosure activity is so low (and many sellers are unwilling to list their properties for sale, knowing that they can’t sell for what they need to make from the sale) that there’s very little out there for buyers to choose from.

Many industry experts are expecting a dramatic rise in foreclosures over the coming months as Freddie and Fannie have recently halted their foreclosure moratoriums. As this action trickles down to the field, six months worth of foreclosures could flood the market.

About a month ago, Cindy Jones on VaRealEstateTalk.com:

Last fall Freddie Mac along with other lenders put a moratorium on new foreclosure proceedings until the economic stimulus packages worked their way through Congress. Only those properties that had already been through the foreclosure process made their way to the MLS and not even all of those have been listed.

For example one agent in my office who handles Freddie Mac foreclosures has just now received the go ahead to list a few of the properties that had been through the foreclosure process last October and November. Even more interesting is that in one case the owner of the property is still living in the property five months after the foreclosure. A quick look through RealtyTrac.com shows a few hundred properties with the title transfers to a lender, yet none of them have made it to the market. A recent Friday Washington Post showed close to 300 Trustee Sales at the PW Courthouse alone and those properties haven’t hit the market yet either.

From a comment from “Brooks” on a post from Frank Llosa about the problem on FranklyRealty.com:

Today’s [4/21] Washington Post is actually kind of fat for a Tuesday edition. Then you realize that it sports a rather hefty Classified ads section. The “G” section is a solid 20 pages. But, almost all of it is real estate property foreclosure public notices. They start on page G1 and staggeringly run to page G19. They take up almost as much space as the 24-page “A” news and business section. However, employment ads take up less than one column on G19.

I saw this also, and today’s was pretty thick with them as well. Is this the start of a Sick Newspaper Alleviation Program (SNAP)?

My neighbors and I are all pleased to see that a foreclosed home on our little street sold early this week. Better to get them on the market and sold quickly than to have them sit empty for month after month.

It’s Good To Have A Friend In The Business®

If you would like to discuss real estate questions, sell or buy a home in Northern Virginia – including Alexandria, Annandale, Arlington, Burke, Centreville, Chantilly, Clifton, Fairfax, Fairfax Station, Falls Church, Kingstowne, Lorton, McLean, Reston, Springfield, or Vienna – contact Kim today.

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March 2009 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Clifton, Herndon and Vienna (this sounds like a weather alert, doesn’t it?):

A total of 1,384 homes sold in March 2009, an increase of 11% over March 2008. That’s great, but look at this – pending home sales, based on signed contracts, are 2,306, up a fantastic 33% from last year!

Active listings – homes on the market – decreased by 20% from last year, with 8,069 active listings in March, compared with 10,123 homes available in March 2008. Fewer homes on the market usually means prices are poised to start rising. The supply of homes has again fallen into the under-six-months “seller’s market” range.

Another sign of strong activity – the average days on market (DOM) for homes in March 2009 decreased by 18% to 89 days, compared with 109 days in March 2008.

Sales prices continue to remain lower than those realized last year. The average sales price in March fell 17% percent from March 2008 to $395,512, while the median price was $335,000, also a decline of 17%. Interestingly, though, the average and median sale prices are both about 5% higher than last month.

Agents are reporting a considerable number of multiple-offer situations on foreclosures, and on attractive well-priced homes in good condition, particularly in price ranges under $425,000. If you are looking for such a home, be prepared to act decisively – and, if the home is right for you, don’t let yourself be outbid.

It’s Good To Have A Friend In The Business®

If you would like to discuss real estate questions, sell or buy a home in Northern Virginia – including Alexandria, Annandale, Arlington, Burke, Centreville, Chantilly, Clifton, Fairfax, Fairfax Station, Falls Church, Kingstowne, Lorton, McLean, Reston, Springfield, or Vienna – contact Kim today.

4.5% Listings with First-Class Service — Cash Back to My Buyers!

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February 2009 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton:

A total of 1,067 homes sold in February 2009, a 10 % increase above February 2008 home sales of 969.

Active listings decreased by 18 % from last year, with 7,811 active listings in February, compared with 9,497 homes available in February 2008. The average days on market (DOM) for homes in February 2009  to 109 days, compared with 116 days in February 2008.

The average sales price in February fell by 21 % from February 2008, to $380,077, compared with last February’s average of $479,320. The median sales price of homes sold in Northern Virginia in February was $318,000, which is a decline of 23 % compared with February 2008′s median price of $410,500.

The February pending home sales data, based on signed contracts, is bucking the national trend – 1,817 contracts are pending compared to February 2008 when 1,526 were pending, an increase of 19 %.

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Looking at the January 2009 data for the housing market in Northern Virginia (Fairfax and Arlington Counties; Falls Church, Fairfax and Alexandria Cities), the year-over-year trends of the past several months are continuing – sales are up (+39%), active listings are down (-16%), pending sales are up (+23%) and sales prices continue to run 20-25% below those of a year ago, and -30% from two years ago. Average days on market is declining but is still in the 100 range (for sold homes).

The absorption rate has picked up from December’s 5-month figure – we have about 7.5 months of homes on the market now, in the low “buyer’s market” range – largely, I think, because a sizable number of sellers were waiting until after the holidays to put their homes on the market.

There is a lot of action in the sub-$300,000 detached home market. Here are some interesting numbers: 

Detached Homes for sale under $300,000:

• January 2008   =   55
• January 2009   =   436

Detached Homes sold under $300,000:

• January 2008   =   8
• January 2009   =   90

Here’s another interesting number:

Homes financed through FHA/VA:

• January 2008   =   39
• January 2009   =   328

So the government guaranteed the mortgages of over 33% of all homes sold in January 2009. In the entire year of 2006, FHA/VA loans totaled 253, or only 1% of sales in Northern Virginia. Wow.

The mortgage market has been volatile and will continue to be, though the federal government will do all it can to hold it down until the economic outlook improves. Rates are now in the 5.4% range for 30-year fixed. The chart from Bankrate.com shows the last 3 months’ rate movements in Virginia.

The government has a lot of things going on – from Congress to the Treasury to the Federal Reserve to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So many are up in the air that it would be foolish to write about them today.

All the more reason to subscribe to my blog!

If you would like to discuss real estate questions, sell or buy a home in Northern Virginia – including Alexandria, Annandale, Arlington, Burke, Centreville, Chantilly, Clifton, Fairfax, Fairfax Station, Falls Church, Kingstowne, Lorton, McLean, Reston, Springfield, or Vienna – contact Kim today.

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